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Do You Prefer Poison or Antidote?

Gary Christenson
|
Friday, February 2nd

The official U.S. national debt, ignoring off-balance sheet liabilities, unfunded liabilities, “missing money” and fudging was:

Sept. 30, 2016                   $19.573 trillion

October 2, 2017                 $20.347 trillion

One year increase  $0.774 trillion, or $774,000,000,000

Convert those excess expenses to $20 bills (from the ATM). That makes 38.7 billion $20 dollar bills. Each bill weighs 1 gram. The paper bills representing the one-year increase in the national debt weigh about 38,000 metric tons.

Thirty-eight thousand tons of toxic currency are fed into the economy each year. They devalue the dollar, create more unpayable debt, and add to the leverage and inevitable future crisis that Congress refuses to recognize or discuss.

DEBT INCREASES! SO WHAT?

1)   Government interest paid on that debt has increased to half a trillion dollars per year, even with interest rates at multi-generational lows. Half a trillion bucks could be used elsewhere.

2)   More dollars are fed into the economy, into Wall Street, and into “dark pools” of currency that drive the derivatives markets, push stock indices to all-time highs, cryptocurrencies into bubbles, and create multi-generational lows in interest rates.

3)   Consumer prices rise as ever-increasing debt adds currency in circulation far more rapidly than the economy grows. If your wealth ranks in the top few percent, you don’t care. For the rest of us who don’t have a “go-to” lobbyist or Congressperson on speed dial… we care.

4)   As margin debt, total debt, corporate buybacks, and unsustainable stock markets sky-rocket higher, the economy becomes more fragile and less able to absorb shocks. Shocks include: Bursting bubbles, nations at war, currency crash, and floods, hurricanes and wildfires that destroy homes, cities and wealth.

5)   Massive and unpayable U. S. debt aggravates problems, reduces options, and leaves the country more vulnerable to shocks.

$20 trillion in official debt, rapidly approaching $30 and $40 trillion, is a problem—a huge toxic problem. The U. S. government will add another $ trillion of new debt each year for several years. But, as they say, “The piper must be paid.”

Last year the U.S. only increased national debt by three-quarters of a trillion dollars, the equivalent of 38,000 metric tons of twenty dollar bills. To counter that boat-load of poisonous debt, the U.S. used one tiny gram of antidote. Measured how?

ONE GRAM VERSUS 38,000 TONS!

·         The late Senator Everett Dirksen once said, “there’s not a dime’s worth of difference” between Democrats and Republicans. That was four decades ago.

·         2018 Interpretation:  Each Democrat and Republican in the House (where the budget is approved) is worth less than a dime in terms of economic knowledge productively applied to benefit the U.S. economy.

Rationale: 

·         If House members possessed real economic knowledge and acted upon that information, would the U.S. be over $20 trillion in debt?

·         The U.S. could use sound money, honest accounting and balanced budgets, but does not, because … well, you know why.

·         If House members followed the Constitution, money would be gold and silver, or convertible to gold and silver, instead of continuously devaluing paper and digital IOU’s (debts or notes) issued by the Federal Reserve.

·         If House members wanted honest money, our budget, debt and financial system would work differently. However, they like the process, the perks, power, and the wealth our current system provides.

·         Therefore the value of their productive economic knowledge is minimal.

CALCULATION:

·         Each of the 435 members is worth a dime or less in economic knowledge, per the revised 2017 Dirksen interpretation.

 

·         Hence the 435 members of the House, based on their actions and results, are worth $40 in applied economic knowledge.

·         Forty dollars buys one gram of gold, which is real money, not the digital stuff that Congress and the Fed create and spend by the billions every day.

·         There you have it!  The House added the equivalent of 38,000 tons of toxic twenty dollar bills to the national debt last year, but possesses the equivalent of a single gram of gold in their understanding of economic reality.

38,000 Tons of Poison, One Gram of Antidote!

CONCLUSIONS:

·         Congress members like posturing, payoffs, corruption, deficits, and ever-increasing debt.

·         Valuing the economic knowledge of the members of the House at one gram of gold is one interpretation from an “honest money” perspective.  It may be high or low.

·         In contrast, the House members are skilled at “dialing for dollars,” soliciting contributions, selling a narrative, accepting donations from lobbyists, taking care of the 1%, supporting the 0.01%, increasing total debt, and making public announcements.  “The show must go on.”

·         Because we have no reason to expect this process will change and trillions of reasons to believe it will continue, plan on ever-increasing debt, accelerating consumer price inflation, asset bubbles that implode and reflate, and reassuring speeches.

GOLD AND SILVER:

Gold and silver, ESPECIALLY SILVER, are undervalued and unappreciated in 2018. Attention goes to new highs in the Dow, NASDAQ, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The U.S. stock market has risen for nine years, while silver has fallen for seven years. A reversal is due and may have occurred by the time you read this, or it may occur later in 2018.

Silver, per the above graph, is undervalued compared to the NASDAQ. Other ratios between gold, the DOW, and the S&P 500 index show similar undervaluation for precious metals and excessive valuation for the stock market. Bitcoin is “off the charts.”

One example is Netflix stock, with a P/E (Feb. 2, 2018) per Yahoo of 212. (Yes, a three-digit P/E.)

Amazon has a P/E of 372 (as of Feb.2, 2018).

The chart of Bitcoin prices (not shown) makes the vertical moves enjoyed by Netflix and Amazon look sane and sensible. And yes, those three plus hundreds of stocks and cryptocurrencies can go higher. But they are in bubble territory and will crash, perhaps soon.

SILVER IS UNDER-VALUED. Lighten up on over-valued digital stuff and buy real silver. Do your own due diligence, but don’t believe stocks or cryptocurrencies will rise forever.

Now, or soon, is a good time to cash out over-valued stocks and convert Bitcoin and other paper profits into something real – like silver bars and Eagles. 

Gary Christenson

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